Going to Mars is harder than getting to the top of Mt. Everest. And I don’t see anyone living way up there on the summit.
Dear Mr. Musk, I think a better way of doing it is to genetically engineer bacteria to produce an atmosphere first, over successive generations. Generations as in plural, i.e. more than one.
One simple reason we’re where we’re at today is because nature has provided us with abundant raw materials. It started with the use of solar powered materials (by that I mean twine and timber). There are no solar powered materials on Mars. No trees. No forests. The most efficient materials (in terms of energy required to produce them) are natural materials, because they convert sunlight directly into… materials. No heat required. All other synthetic materials require lots of energy to produce.
If I were hired to do a materials feasibility study, I would have to rule that it is “not yet feasible”. Even with the invention of “Martian concrete”. How are are you going to make hermetically sealed living quarters out of that slop? Are they going to be shoveling Martian concrete… wearing gas masks? Builders can’t even get that right here on Earth with abundant food, water and a 21% oxygen level. None of that over there. Is there?
My point is that nature is still subsidising all of humanity’s activities, even today. So we would be going backward centuries, millennia even. You can’t even light a fire on the planet Mars. What good is that? People today would be bored out of their minds.
IMHO, trying to colonise Mars now is going to be 10x slower, 10x more expensive and 10x more boring than expected. Besides, if we were all living on the planet Mars now under domed little roofs, I’m sure we’d all want to live here –on the interesting planet– not there.
And the way production and manufacturing has worked up until now is this: several tens of thousands of years ago, wood and other natural, local materials were first used to to usher in the ceramic/pottery era … which was then used to usher in the bronze era … which was then used to usher in the iron era … which was used to usher in the modern information & nanotechnology era. We have always had to work our way up the material chain. And all the while, well, nature herself has been subsidising us all along. With the really important things like food and oxygen.
My point is, we didn’t just jump straight into making gigahertz computers, we had to work up to it. Slooowly.
So it would be a bit like taking our current technology back in time, to the ancient Egyptians. Now to the big question: How much technology would we need to take to them to advance the rest of that civilisation in one big, massive jump forwards?
So right along those lines, here’s a quick thought experiment: say you take a smartphone back in time to the ancient Egyptians. Does anyone truly think that that would be ‘enough’ to start making mass-produced batches of smartphones right next to the pyramids o Giza? Well in case it isn’t clear already, it’s not.
Because first of all, there are no microscopes to even see what is going on inside that phone to even reverse-engineer that technology. And in order to get the microscopes, one has to first invent glass. And to do that, one needs polishing machines. Which requires motors. Axles. Bearings. Magnets. Copper wire. Electrical insulation. Ok. Now that we have that, on to making the components. Capacitors require tantalum. Touch screens require indium. Tin. Oxygen.
What are resistors made of? Carbon. Nichrome wire. Plenty of that here on Earth… not so much on Mars. Okay, not to be the pessimistic one, what are circuit boards made of? Fibreglass. What is the matrix made of? Plastic. What are plastic buttons and the casing made of? Plastic. No oil wells on Mars yet. Shit. Where is the nearest fibreglass factory? Where is the nearest plastic factory? Yellow pages? Hmmm. This is going to be more difficult than we first thought, isn’t it?
Never mind, we will continue, however.
What about the semiconductors used in all those tiny transistors? Germanium. Germanium is hard enough to get our hands on here, let alone there (with no atmosphere). Do you see my point? And there are many other elements required too. Where is the nearest gadolinium mine? Earth, that’s where.
Where are the silicon mines and purifying factories located on Mars? Nowhere. Don’t we need vacuum rooms for that as well? Well, yes. Why? Because the ‘vacuum’ that is the Mars’ atmosphere… is simply not ‘vacuumy’ enough. We need an ultra-high vacuum to achieve high-grade 99.999% purity silicon. So we are going to take vacuum pumps with us now are we? They’re pretty heavy. And every scientist already knows— you can never ever get down to an ultra-high vacuum with only one type of vacuum pump. Better make that rocket booster a bit bigger for the takeoff. Still more rocket fuel than expected.
Ahh yes, there is this one new technique to manufacture 99.999% silicon from 84% ferrosilicon. Except that it requires a sol-gel lab. Glassware at the very least. Liquids. Centrifuges. Magnets. Neodymium. Oh well.
So what you space futurists are basically telling me is that you would have to bring all of these starting materials… from Earth first… simply in order to “get going”.
I can’t even yet buy a fucking Mars bar on the planet Mars. And we are already talking about colonising that motherfucker?
“For a better world?”
Which world exactly?
Timely reminder: there is a whole freakin’ industry required to produce computers and everything else from their raw materials. A whole level of industry. Everything from mining equipment to extraction facilities, to manufacturing centres and clean rooms. The only way a Mars colony could ever be truly self-sustaining, is to take several different types of factories –yes I said entire factories– with us.
And everyone already knows small factories are not as efficient as larger factories, right? So in case the purpose of this post isn’t clear yet, what is the fucking point of this new Mars mission?
And now to my second big question: if we already know that the efficiency of production there is going to be WORSE than what it is here. If getting there fuck’s up this planet further, why even go?
Why go? Because we can? Does that mean we should? This goes without saying, but just because we can do something does not mean that we should. Simply being able to do something does not make it ‘better’.
And is that what we have been planning to do all along? How much jet fuel would that require I wonder? Eh?
So I think we better not bite off more than we can chew. I think the space mission to Mars, this whole redent “we need to colonise Mars” thing, is a bit like the 1960s space race, but this time between billionaires/trillionaires not just superpower states. Albeit with comparable 1950s era-like naïvety. That’s what I think of it. Those futuristic images depicted by artificial intelligence are just about as stupid and naïve as some 1950s era visions of space stations and shit. And here we are in the year 2025 (which really does feel like “the future” in many respects, at least to some of us older people) and there are no space stations or . Except today we really should know better.
Now, I am not saying that we are not ‘clever’. I am not saying that we are not ‘advanced’. I am not saying that it can’t ever be done. And I’m not saying that it won’t ever be done.
But what I am saying is that it is definitely going to be harder than we think. Not to mention less efficient. And ultimately worse for planet Earth.
We are not yet even fully self sustaining here on Earth, with water that falls freely from the sky, with oxygen that is freely available and with food that grows all by itself.
And people still want to start an entire manufacturing operation on another planet, with absolutely none of that already over there?
UPDATE:
Just today, Elon, rather foolishly said this:
“We need to transport about a million tons of cargo in order to make it sustainable and about a million people or more. Civilization will branch off when Mars can self sustain even if shipments from Earth stop coming. I think there might be a case where the future Mars citizens come and help Earth one day when we’ll need it. Once we have a Mars civilization we can expand to the rest of the solar system. Then we go from being a multi planetary civilization to a multi stellar civilization and start learning more about if we’re the only life out here.” — Elon Musk
Firstly, not even Elon Musk could afford to transport a million tonnes of cargo to the planet Mars any time soon. And I’d be willing to bet that not even the top 1% rich people couldn’t afford it either, even if they pooled together all of their wealth, combined and accumulated it. It’s just… not happening okay. So forget it Elon.
And here’s a scary few final thoughts. The only way it would work, I think, is if ‘people’ are genetically modified and specifically adapted to live there. If they can breathe thinner air, if they have different shaped noses to filter out the Martian dust (well that’s assuming they won’t need a space helmet), thicker UV-protected skin (also prevents or lessens dehydration), different digestive tract to cope with different food sources perhaps, lesser water requirements than humans.
Would these beings then resemble humans at all then? Would we even want to go in that direction? It opens all sorts of ethical questions and moral dilemmas.
And sooner than “future Mars citizens come and help Earth one day”, I think much more likely to happen, if you look at past historical events and squabbles over mineral and material resources, food sources and land, is that the new Martian colony, once it starts to get established that is, becomes very different from our own, generates its own [different] cultures, priorities, values and traditions. Because it is more isolated and segregated and this is always what happens with any new colonies. They diverge. And then it, they, whatever they is, starts to see us –all of humanity back here on Earth– as a threat to its own survival, a direct threat to its very own existence, and goes on to attack us. To declare war on Earth. Or vice versa, and we go to war with them. It would be like creating Frankenstein’s monster. Why go there? Why do it? We may live to regret it one day.
I certainly don’t think it’s right. We need to fix our home and make our way of life more sustainable first before galavanting halfway off across the Solar System and spoiling other planets with our man-made synthetic junk.
Elon mentioned something about dinosaurs not having spaceships. Well dinosaurs were some of the most successful organisms to roam the Earth. They were around for hundreds and hundreds of millions of years. We really shouldn’t insult that longevity.
Just a reminder that those big extinction-event level asteroids are very few and far between, happening every few hundred million years or so. If Elon is so worried about apocalyptic asteroids striking the Earth one day and completely wiping us all out so to speak, why doesn’t he choose to focus on that actual threat –the asteroids– instead of this whole Mars colony thing? Wouldn’t it be smarter to concentrate on asteroid detection and elmination? Well I’ll answer my own question, yes it would. That would be a much cheaper insurance approach to human civilisation than striving for some ridiculously costly non-practical and non-workable “planet B” option.
